Re: 2009 TAMPA BAY RAYS SEASON PREVIEW

看板Rays作者catsondbs (貓仔)時間16年前 (2009/02/05 19:06)推噓3(3推 0噓 5→)

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※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言： : 標題: 2009 TAMPA BAY RAYS SEASON PREVIEW : 時間: Wed Feb 4 21:34:03 2009 接力 : : 2009 RAYS BENCH : : C-Shawn Riggans: 222/287/407; 6HR, 7-2B, 24RBI, 11.3AB:BB, 0SB, 80OPS+ : IF-Willy Aybar; 253/327/410; 10HR, 17-2B, 33RBI, 10.1AB:BB, 2SB, 92OPS+ : IF-Ben Zobrist: 253/339/505; 12HR, 10-2B, 30RBI, 7.9AB:BB, 3SB, 118OPS+ : OF-Gabe Kapler: 301/340/498; 8HR, 17-2B, 38RBI, 17.6AB:BB, 3SB, 117OPS+ : OF-Gabe Gross: 238/336/414; 13HR, 16-2B, 40RBI, 6.9AB:BB, 4SB, 96OPS+ : OF-Justin Riggiano: 197/247/329; 2HR, 4-2B, 7RBI, 19.0AB:BB, 2SB, 50OPS+ : : Ruggiano is the one out of the group that most likely won't be a part of the : team when camp breaks. I like this bench to be honest. Aybar is a pretty good : utility infielder and I already think Zobrist should be the starting SS for : this team. The Rays did a pretty good job of going out and getting OF Gabe : Kapler to shore up the bench a bit. If BJ Upton isn't going to start the : season on time, the Rays could use Kapler in CF or slide Crawford over to CF : and slot Kapler in LF. Lefties tear Gross up, but he can hit righties really : well so he can be a pretty good platoon outfielder and pinch hitter off the : bench for the Rays. What's interesting about this bench too is the amount of : plate discipline it has. Except for Kapler, everyone who is likely to make : the bench for Tampa can draw a walk effectively. Heck, two players had OPS+ : numbers closing in on 12o (Zobrist & Kapler). Obviously you don't want to see : your starting players go down but Tampa Bay could probably weather a minor : injury or two. I'd like to see Zobrist get a chance. : 在板凳方面，Ruggiano大概春訓時不會在名單之中。老實說我對光芒的替補方面很滿意，Aybar是個很好的內野工具人，而Zobrist明年應該取代Bartlett先發。今年簽下Gabe Kapler是不錯的動作，假如Upton因傷不能趕上開季，還能夠有人補上CF ( 讓Kapler→ CF或Crawford→ CF Kapler→ LF) Gross雖然完全對付不了左投(2008 .191/.247/.338)，但他對右投的良好表現讓他足夠在外野輪值和代打要員佔一席位（.249/.356/.433）光芒的板凳最棒的是他們的plate discipline。除了Kapler外幾乎每一個人都有選球眼可以選到BB；而且其中有兩人(Zobrist & Kapler)的OPS+接近120，相對其他隊伍會為傷兵而煩惱，閃光有足夠能力去承受一些小傷小痛。 : : : OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE TAMPA BAY OFFENSE? : : There is so much potential in this lineup. With Longoria, Pena, Joyce, Upton, : Crawford and Burrell, there is a muderers row of players! What is somewhat : interesting about the Rays is there 1-2 punch at the top of the order. If you : think the guys I just mentioned are more middle of the order guys, then you : are left with Navarro, Iwamura, and Bartlett as your 1-2-9 hitters. Having : Bartlett at #9 is a no-brainer, but who leads off for this team? I think : Crawford is more of a #6-#7 hitter and if you put Iwamura at #2 then where : does that leave the #1 place in the order? : 毫無疑問有龍哥 + Pena + Joyce + Upton + Crawford + Burrell簡直是殺人打線在棒次的安排上，如果你同意上面提的幾個都是中心棒次，那就剩下Narvarro、 Aki和Bartlett要放到1、2、9棒了。無可置疑Bartlett會被放到第9棒，剩下的兩個，首先我認為Crawford比較適合6 7棒，那麼假如放Aki作第二棒，那麼第一棒的人選除了＂他＂還有別人嗎? : Last year Iwamura & Crawford went 1-2 in the lineup, but I don't know. I : don't mind Iwamura hitting 2nd but if there is anything missing with the Rays : it's a leadoff hitter really. This is certainly nitpicking and a lot of : people will tell you that lineup construction doesn't mean a whole lot, but : there is something here that doesn't make for a 100% optimal lineup in Tampa. : While the Yankees have Damon-Jeter and the Red Sox have Pedroia-Youkilis, the : Rays have Iwamura-Crawford and they could be better served other places in : the lineup in my opinon. Would hitting Upton leadoff be such a horrible idea? : 昨年是Aki&Crawford做#1 & #2棒，我並不介意把Aki排第二，不過光芒真正需要的是個 leadoff hitter。有些人或許會反駁說棒次的影響沒很大，不過當洋基有大門-Peter、 Sox有Pedroia-Youkilis，而光芒是Aki-Crawford....我覺得比起把他們放一二棒還有更適合的地方，那才是對打線最好的安排。老實說，讓Upton打第一棒難道是這麼糟糕的提議嗎？ : My guess is that Tampa goes: : Iwamura-Crawford-Upton-Pena-Longoria-Burrell-Joyce-Navarro-Bartlett which is : a very formidable lineup. I don't think we'll look back on 2009 if Tampa win : and blame the offense. It's primed and ready to go! : 我猜明年打線會是 Aki-Crawford-Upton-Pena-Longoria-Burrell-Joyce-Navarro-Bartlett 這個將會是相當有實力的打線，能夠很有信心地給你保證，在2009年攻擊將不會是個問題 : : 2009 RAYS STARTING ROTATION : : #1-Scott Kazmir: 152.3IP, 7.3H/9, 9.8K/9, 2.4K:BB, 4.1BB/9, 1.4HR/9, : 1.267WHIP, 127ERA+ : : A lefty with 92-mph gas who is just filthy. Kazmir has evolved into a 2-pitch : pitcher, working off his fastball and changeup with the occasional slide : piece thrown in to keep hitters honest. What is pretty amazing is how many : pitchers can walk 4+ per game and give up 1+ HR per game and still manage an : ERA+ of 127!? Kamzir is a legitimate ace with the skill set to contend for : the title of best pitcher in the game. Even though he did make it over 200IP : in 2007, elbow problems at the beginning of the year derailed his season : totals for 2008. It's interesting to note that Kazmir is going to be 25-years : old in 2009 while David Price will be 23. That's only 2-years difference yet : Kazmir has pitched 5 seasons already. Even with Price on the team, Kazmir has : by far and away the best stuff on the roster. The big problem is that he : simply can't cut down his pitches. If Kazmir could half his walk rate he'd be : almost superhuman on the mound. He's still so young so he could have a couple : of consolidation years left in him, but at some point you wonder when he's : going to put it all together. : 能投到有92mph的左投絕對是犯規。Kaz的直球和Changeup和偶爾一用的滑球對打者而言都是殺人的武器。更令人驚訝的是他雖然BB/9 = 4.1和HR/9 >1卻仍然投出127ERA+的好成績，稱他為當今最好的投手之一絕對是當之無愧。和23歲新上場的Price比較， 25歲的Kaz已經在大聯盟投了5個seasons了，即使Price加入光芒的輪值，Kaz的stuff始於是很明顯地較為突出。要注意的是，雖然曾經在07年投了200+IP ，他的傷患在08年對他影響甚大，他最大的問題還是壓不下用球數，如果能將BB/9壓到2以下他就是完美的超人了（按:這不是廢話嗎 = =) 他是還年輕還有時間讓他成長，不過你會不禁疑惑要到甚麼時候他才能長成完全體 : : #2-James Shields: 215IP, 8.7H/9, 6.7K/9, 4.0K:BB, 1.7BB/9, 1.0HR/9, : 1.153WHIP, 125ERA+ : : Shields put up almost a carbon copy of his 2007 season in 2008. You can't : really say Shields is a one-year wonder now that he's got two years under his : belt. Shields isn't overaly dominant. His average fastball is 90.4mph, but he : has a 4-pitch arsenal that he pulls the string on almost anytime he wants to. : He works mostly off a fastball, cutter, changeup trio but he'll show a : curveball every now and again. His control is pinpoint but he also has : stellar command to go along with it. He's thrown 215IP the last couple of : seasons and given this stuff/command, you'd have to at least put him into the : discussion as a #2 starter. Last season he started 33 games and threw 3,123 : pitches. That's 94-95 pitches per game or 14.5/IP. If he averaged 6.5IP/GS : then he could get at least 1-more inning's worth of work pushing his average : pitches/G up to 109-110. That's an extra 33IP on top of his 215 making it : 248IP per year for him. Could he handle that? I don't know but at some point : you take the reins off a pitcher who has established a workload the way : Shields has the last two seasons. If he pitches close to 250IP with 7K/9 and : 1.7BB/9 then you are looking at a borderline #1 starter. : Shields在08年複製了他在07年的好成績，足以證明他不是個fluke。雖然還沒有宰制聯盟，他的4種球種和平均90.4mpb的直球使他所向披糜，而且還有很好的Control 和有漂亮的command（按:不是一樣的嗎?　兩個的分別是??)　以他的stuff/command 和過去兩季都貢獻了215IP，身為球隊的#2 Starter他相當稱職昨年他先發了33場，總共投了３,123球，平均每場是94 95球（14.5/IP) 假使他能將Pitch per game拉到109-110，就能每年多吃33IP，一年248IP會否吃不消呢? 考慮到他過去兩季的工作量似乎也不是不可能。如果能吃250IP又能維持現在的BB/9 和K/9，那就是個#1 Starter的表現了 : : #3-Matt Garza: 184.7IP, 8.3H/9, 6.2K/9, 2.2K:BB, 2.9BB/9, 0.9HR/9, 1.240WHIP, : 118ERA+ : : Solid debut for Garza in his first time role of regular major league starter. : I don't care what Twins Nation says, they got hosed on the Matt Garza for : Delmon Young deal. Plain and simple. I've read reports where Garza made : adjustments in 2008 that favored a little more control rather than striking : people out so if you are wondering why that K/9 isn't as high as his minor : league numbers would indicate, there is your answer. Garza did make some : adjustments back to strikeouts though. In his first 8 starts of 2008, Garza : fanned only 3.9 hitters per 9IP. In his last 22 starts, he upped that rate to : 7.0/9IP! He had a nerve problem that forced him to miss 3 starts, but you : can't really argue with the numbers here. If his last 22 starts are any guide : and if he keeps getting better with a more consistent feel for his pitches, : why couldn't he push that K/9 up to 7.5-7.8? This guy looks all the way solid : to me! Garza大聯盟的首季先發很棒，不管Twins怎麼說這次交易絕對是我們得利了。有報導說 Garza今年"降K求控球"，所以三振/9沒小聯盟時這麼高還可以接受。不過他也有一直在調整，在季初8次先發他的K/9只有3.9，而在之後的22場則躍升至7.0!　他的手腕問題令他錯過了3場先發，不過並不影響這所有的數據都證明他是個好投手。依他的後22場的成績預測，明年很可能可以把K/9升到7.5-7.8。總之他是個很棒的先發! 先在這裡停下，翻譯真的很累 Orz　 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 137.189.99.122