Re: 2009 TAMPA BAY RAYS SEASON PREVIEW

看板Rays作者immortalqq (大牛)時間16年前 (2009/02/05 16:30)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

留言0則, 0人參與討論串2/4 (看更多)

※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言：快速翻譯有錯請見諒 : Sunday, February 01, 2009 by Baseball Savant : The thing I remember most about the Rays before the 2008 season began was : listening to Buster Olney on ESPN Radio one morning talking about how he : could see the Rays winning the AL East. At the time I thought he was nuts. : Sure the Rays were shaping up to be a pretty good club, but I thought their : real breakout would be 2009 or 2010. 在08年球季之前我對光芒的最深的印象就是Buster Olney某天在ESPN上講說光芒會如何贏得08的美東冠軍。那時我覺得那只是個玩笑，當然我知道光芒是好的球隊，而且我覺得光芒真正爆發是在2009或者是2010年 : The Rays thought otherwise and proved Olney's premonition correct. The Rays : had a tremendous season in 2008. They won 97-games, the AL East and the AL en : route to the World Series where they fell to the Philadelphia Phillies in : 5-games. I thiny any discussion of the Rays is always going to center around : the supposed "blueprint" they've somehow showed that works against big market : teams. Unfortunately this theory has about as many holes in as can possibly : be tolerated. 光芒證明Olney的預測是對的，他們有猛獸般的08球季，總共贏了97場並拿下美東冠軍、美聯冠軍直指世界大賽，但是在世界大賽敗給費城人隊。討論光芒的重點就在"藍圖" 而這點是跟大市場完全不同的。不幸的是這個理論有許多缺點，但可能可以被忍受。 : Let's think about it for a minute. They got Kazmir in a huge ripoff of the : Mets. They took Carlos Pena off the scrap heap. Turned a former #1 pick into : Matt Garza. Had a 16th round pick (James Shields) turn into gold. Signed : Iwamura from Japan, got JP Howell from Kansas City in the Joey Gathright : deal. Got Dan Wheeler for Ty Wiggington. Took Grant Balfour off the scrap : head and traded for Chad Bradord. Combine that with a TON of first round : draft picks that have worked out (Longoria, Upton, Garza, Crawford & Price) : and you have the Rays blueprint. 我們試著想一想。他們從梅子那裡大搶劫來Kazmir、從土推裡找來Carlos Pena、用第一輪選手換來Matt Garza(楊大猛←→Garza)、把第16輪的J.Shields變成黃金、從日本簽來岩村、用新一代腿哥J.Gathright跟皇家換來JP Howell、用Wiggington換Wheeler、從土推撿到Balfour和交易到潛水艇Braford。結合一堆第一輪(Longoria, Upton, Garza, Crawford and Price)，然後光芒得到他們的藍圖 : The problem is that this a blueprint that is almost unsustainable. Who bats : 1.000 with first round draft picks? Who takes Bryan Bullington over BJ Upton? : Who now is going to trade a Scott Kamir for Victor Zambrano? : At the same time you have to give credit where credit is due. Pulling guys : like Pena, Iwamura, and Balfour off of scrap heaps was amazing. Dealing Young : for Garza, Wiggington for Wheeler and Gathright for Howell were brilliant : moves in retrospect and let's not forget how big of a deal Eric Hinske was : for Tampa Bay early in 2008! The guy hit like a machine and really propelled : the Rays offense early on. The Rays also brought in Gabe Gross to play some : RF last season in a deal with Milwaukee. 問題在於這個藍圖幾乎無法維持，誰可以百分百確定第一輪可以順利養成? 誰會把Bryan Bullington選在BJ Upton前面?(海盜躺著也重槍...) 誰會用V.Zambrano來換S.Kamzir? 撿到Pena,Balfour和岩村是令人驚豔的，回想交易到Garza,Wheeler和Howell是聰明之舉但我們不能忘記恨司機在08年的表現，他打擊就像個機器而且幫助光芒的防守光芒也用G.Gross擔任RF腳色 : By all accounts GM Andrew Friedman did a tremendous job assembling the 2008 : Tampa Bay Rays. This year he's pulled some more moves. The base of the team : is pretty much exactly the same but there are some subtle moves that could : pay big dividends for Tampa Bay in 2009. Signing Pat Burrell to play DH was a : fantastic move. Burrell becomes automatically the best DH Tampa has ever had. : He brings to the team tremendous plate discipline and the ability to hit : 30-35HR per year. Friedman dealt an extra arm in Edwin Jackson to the Tigers : for RF Matt Joyce. Joyce potentially has 30HR power and can play a : staggeringly good defense in RF. GM在08作了太棒的工作了，09他也做了一些補強動作而這些動作將會帶給光芒很大的幫助簽下P.Burrell當DH，Burrell自動成為TB有史以來最好的DH，他擁有極佳的本壘板紀律而且有能力每年敲出30-35HR。GM把E.Jackson交易到老虎得到M.Joyce，Joyce則有年產 30HR的潛力，而且在RF有良好的防守 : Friedman did a good job of getting his pitching staff fortified too. David : Price will now enter the rotation as a full time starter, taking over where : Edwin Jackson left off. Clearly Price has the talent to be a dominant #1 : starter in the major leagues and gaining an arm like that only can improve : the ballclub. In the pen, Friedman didn't rest on his laurels of already : having the best bullpen in the majors. He added guys like Joe Smith, Brian : Shouse and Lance Cormier to provide some depth to go along with dominant : pitchers such as Grant Balfour, JP Howell and Dan Wheeler. GM也加強的投手部分。Top 1新秀D.Price代替Jackson的工作終於加入輪值，很清楚的 Price有當ACE的天份。在牛棚 GM並沒有因為去年是全MLB最佳牛棚而停下腳步，加入了 J.Smith, B.Shouse和L.Cormier來增加深度 : So that is sort of the blueprint Tampa is going under. It's really a great : blueprint and I think that is the real story of Tampa in 2008. They busted : out earlier than I expected, but as all Oakland A's fans know, the real test : comes with repeatability and let's not forget that Tampa didn't come home : with the prize. Last year was an insane year for Tampa. They went from worst : to first and got to the World Series, but now is when the grind for elite : status begins and if the Rays keep winning then they won't have #1 draft : picks to replenish their system. At some point if they keep payroll stagnant : they'll have to keep finding diamonds in the rough and making their draft : choices even more shrewdly because the obvious pick won't be there. They : drafted SS Tim Beckham last season with the #1 overall pick, but that might : be their last #1 pick for quite awhile. : Will this blueprint cash in on what was missed last season? Let's take a look. 所以這就是光芒藍圖的類型光芒持續贏球他們無法再拿到第一順位的選秀來補充他們的農場，而且如果光芒的預算不能擴大，他們只能在草堆裡尋找鑽石而且在選秀裡更加精明去年他們選T.Beckham為狀元郎，但是這很可能是光芒一段時間內最後的第一順位了 : 2009 RAYS STARTING LINEUP : C-Dioner Navarro: 295/349/407; 7HR, 27-2B, 54RBI, 12.6AB/BB, 0SB, 98OPS+ : It's odd to think Navarro is just going to be 25-years old because it seems : he's been around forever. Maybe that's me being a Yankees fan and knowing : about him since he's come up through the minor leagues, but still. If you can : believe from the above stat line, Navarro was actually an All-Star last : season. This had more to do with the fact that Posada & Martinez were hurt : and Varitek is just a shell of his former self, but for now, Navarro is not : only an All-Star catcher but also a championship caliber catcher if you : believe in that sort of thing when a team makes it to the World Series. Last : season Navarro's offense was carried by his .321 BABIP which drove his : batting average to almost .300. For his career to date his established BABIP : is only .292 so he was well over his previous production. The average is : going down meaning the ISO OBP% is going down too, but he did thump a few : more doubles last season so there might be a little more power to come. : Assuming Victor Martinez & Jorge Posada can't catch anymore, is it too much : to say that Navarro might be the 2nd best catcher in the AL behind Joe Mauer? : Matt Wieters isn't up yet and Saltalamacchia hasn't established himself in : Texas yet either. It's a helluva positional advantage to have. Navarro實際上有個All-Star season，當然有部份是因為Posada,V-Mart受傷， Varitek退化嚴重。但是Navarro現在不只是個All-Star更是個有冠軍實力的捕手接著說Navarro的進步..... 如果Posada, V-Mart不能再蹲捕說Navarro是美連第二名的捕手會太超過嗎? 超級新人M.Wieters還沒上來 Salty在條子也還沒展示他在MiLB的實力 : 1B-Carlos Pena: 347/377/494; 31HR, 24-2B, 102RBI, 5.1AB/BB, 1SB, 127OPS+ : First half OPS was .778. Second half OPS was .978! Pena got off to a brutal : start but salvaged a season by becoming a monster in the 2nd half. When you : take a look at Pena's season, there isn't much difference in 2008 as there : was in 2007 as far as the peripheral stats go except for one category: HR/F : ratio. In 2007 when Pena went bezerk at the plate, 30% of his fly balls went : out of the yard. In 2008, only 19% did. What is troubling for Pena is that : from 2004-2006, his HR/F% were 18%, 17% & 18% respectively. In 2007 it was : 30% but in 2008 it was back to 19%. So what number looks like the outlier? : Even in his monster 2nd half, Pena only had a 22% HR/F ratio so even then it : wasn't back up to 30%. Remember too that 2007 was Pena's age-29 season. For : the most part, Pena is probably a .260-.270 hitter with serious power who has : incredible plate discipline. He's also a helluva defensive 1B. You can : certainly make the argument he's the best defensive 1B in the AL outside of : Lyle Overbay. If Pena can avoid a 1st half mess again, then he's easily a : .250-40-110 hitter in the middle of a very good lineup. Pena在上半季不理想OPS只有.778 但是下半季卻是.978!!! 接著說Pena飛球跟HR的比率 07年是誇張的30% 就算是08下半季那麼強也只有22% 所以Pena應該不可能回到那麼變態的07年成績而且Pena有極佳的本壘板紀律(選球)還有很不錯的防守能力應該只在Overbay之下如果Pena開季不要那麼糟應該會有 AVG.250 40HR 110RBI的成績 : 2B-Akinori Iwamura: 274/349/380; 6HR, 30-2B, 48RBI, 9.0AB:BB, 8SB, 92OPS+ : I know I'm only remembering Iwamura's play against the White Sox and : conveniently forgetting his performance against Boston & Philadelphia, but : wow did it seem like this kid came to dominate during the playoffs! In : reality, Iwamura is just an OK player. Offensively he's below average : although he does have some doubles power and pretty good strikezone : judgement. On the other hand, his OPS+ of 92 puts him below average : offensively. He's solid defensively at 2B, but he isn't tremendous either. He : strikes out a ton and doesn't make the best of baserunning plays. It's sort : of hard to figure. On the one hand when you watch him play he seems like a : sparkplug. On the other, his stats say he's not all that good. What's : interesting is that there is some semblance of a skill set here but for : whatever reason there is no real consolidation of skills. He is a foreign : import and maybe he needs a couple of years to adjust? I like what I see when : I watch him play but when you take that out of the equation....well.....it's : not that good. 岩村只是個OK player 進攻上大約低於平均他有製造一些2B的power還有良好的好球帶在2B的防守算流暢但非頂尖，三振太多在跑壘上也沒太好看他上場覺得他似乎是個領導份子，從另一方面來看又沒那麼好總之沒那麼好 so so player : 3B-Evan Longoria: 272/343/531; 27HR, 31-2B, 85RBI, 9.7AB:BB, 7SB, 125OPS+ : Longoria finished as the AL Rookie of the Year and actually finished 11th in : the MVP voting. He's just 22 by the way! Let's get the defense out of the way : first. He's great. He'll be a contender for a gold glove at the hot corner : for years to come. His RZR (revised zone rating) was the best in the AL for : 3B with at least 1,000 innings played. It was tied with Scott Rolen so you : know Longoria can pick it at 3B. Offensively, it sound ridiculous but there : is room for the guy to get better. He struckout a little too much meaning his : contact rate could get better and will as he gets more selective at the : plate. As odd as it seems, lefties ate him up besides him being a : right-handed hitter. He didn't hit all that great at home which is odd : because hitters are usually creatures of habit and routine so being at home : should make Longoria more comfortable in the future. Longoria also had a : fairly awful September which sort of played its way into the playoffs. He did : well in the ALDS & ALCS but he hit a woeful .050/.050/.050 in the World : Series! I don't see how he's not the 2nd best 3B in the AL behind A-Rod at : this point and he might be closing fast. If he makes some adjustments, : Longoria could go .300-40-120 and if the Rays win the AL East again, you're : looking at the next AL MVP. 龍哥拿到了08年的新人王而且在MVP票選在第11位他還只有22歲!!!! 在防守上很棒應該會是以後金手套的熱門人選他的RZR是全美聯最佳(超過1000局守備) 進攻上它還有許多空間可以進步，三振太多表示他的contact還有進步空間而且選球也會更好，但是左投對他仍是個大威脅，在自家球場打的比較不好更是奇怪(XD) [作者隱涵龍哥成績↑↑↑ good!!!!] 九月打的很差(應該是受傷的原因) 而且在季後賽很不好雖然ALDS ALCS OK 但是在WS 只有.050/.050/.050 Orz... 他是A-Rod之後得最佳3B 而且差距會越來越小如果他有做些調整及進步大概會有.300 40HR 120RBI !!!!! 而且如果光芒再次拿下美東冠軍別意外龍哥會是MVP : SS-Jason Bartlett: 286/329/361; 1HR, 25-2B, 37RBI, 20.6AB:BB, 20SB, 82OPS+ : Defense is the name of his guy's game. The 20 steals is nice but a guy needs : to steal at a 75% success rate to help a team. Bartlett was caught 6 times : last season so his steal rate was just 77% so he's even teetering on being : not useful there. In all honestly, I'm not entirely sure what Tampa Bay gets : from Bartlett that it couldn't get from Ben Zobrist at SS? Sure Reid Brignac : looks like a bust at this point, but Zobrist actually had a better RZR than : Bartlett at defense with a lot more pop in his bat. Zobrist is also a : switch-hitter who can hit righties, something Bartlett struggles mightily to : do. The more I look it at the more I wonder why Bartlett is playing? He can't : do much with the bat and while his defense is pretty good, he's not Ozzie : Smith either. 防守很棒但是不懂為何TB不用B.Zobrist來當SS Zobrist的RZR比Bartlett還好而且更有power 還是switch hitter [最後用Ozzie Smith酸了Bartlett] : LF-Carl Crawford: 273/319/400; 8HR, 12-2B, 57RBI, 14.8AB:BB, 25SB, 87OPS+ : From 2002-2007, Crawford saw an increase in his OPS+ in every single year! : That's pretty amazing, but last season finger & hamstring problems held him : up and his OPS+ dropped to a terrible 87. Because of his injuries, his power : and speed were decimated and we get the batting line that you see above. I'm : not really sure what to think about Crawford. Because of his speed, he's a : pretty exciting player and he plays a TERRIFIC defensive LF. On the other : hand, you don't need great defense to play LF and that positon is usually : reserved for guys who hit a ton. Because of BJ Upton in CF, the Rays can get : away with having Crawford in LF, but he does have a pretty good skill set. : For the most part he's a 4-tool player with all the tools except power, but : then again because of his doubles and triples potential, he can slug in the : high-.400s. I'm kind of on the fence with Crawford because he seems more like : a fantasy player, but I'm warming up to him. He'll only be 27-years old so : he's just now hitting his prime years! That could get scary. 從02-07 Crawford的OPS+每年進步但是今年只有87.... 去年手指跟大腿傷勢困惱著他不用多說Crawford他進攻上利用速度而且LF防守超好但是不可能把它移防CF 因為CF是BJ Upton 他是個4 tools打者(缺少power) 但是因為速度可以製造許多2B和3B 讓他的SLG可以到.400 他才27歲而且持續進步 : CF-B.J. Upton: 273/383/401; 9HR, 37-2B, 67RBI, 5.5AB:BB, 44SB, 107OPS+ : Shoulder injury was the reason Upton hit 24HR in 2007 but followed up with : just 9 in 2008. The problem is that he had surgery in November and now it : looks like he won't be playing on opening day for Tampa. Upton is just going : to be 24-years old and I really can't imagine what the Pirates think seeing : him blossom the way he has in Tampa Bay while Bryan Bullington sucks. Still, : 2009 might be a wash for Upton. If the shoulder stuff lingers then his power : might not be 100% once again in 2009 although in the 2008 post-season it : didn't seem to be hampered. Upton plays a good defensive CF and has plate : discipline to spare. He strikesout a TON although that did improve from 2007 : to 2008. Upton has all the skills to breakout and I don't think seeing him : with multiple 40-40 seasons is completley out of the question. If it wasn't : for the shoulder, he might be playing for the title as best player in the : game given his position, but it might have to wait a year before we see Upton : finally put it all together. 肩膀問題讓Upton 08年只敲出9HR 現在已經動完手術我還是不懂為什麼Upton已經在TB開花結果而02年狀元郎Bryan Bullington still sucks [海盜真的很可憐一直被鞭明明作者前面就講到不是每個狀元簽都養的出來...] 最算肩膀開好刀Upton在09年還是不會恢復所有的power 防守極佳雖然三振超級多但是仍有再進步 Upton有能力breakout[07年很強了還不算breakout....作者...]40-40對他不會是個問題如果不是肩膀問題他早就是CF這個位子上的最佳球員等待Upton的breakout : RF-Matt Joyce: 252/339/492; 12HR, 16-2B, 33RBI, 7.8AB:BB, 0SB, 116OPS+ : The Rays thought they didn't have a regular RF in Gabe Gross so used an extra : part, Edwin Jackson, to use as trade bait with the Tigers to land minor : league prospect Matt Joyce. Last season was Joyce's first taste of major : league pitching and he aquitted himself very nicely. The Rays are hoping : Joyce can be a lefty power bat. Known to have gap-to-gap power in the minor : leagues, Joyce really stepped up his game and provided power in Comerica : where power pretty much goes to die. Trading in Comerica for the Trop and : getting regular playing time could mean possibly 30HR for Joyce in a Rays : uniform. He's an outstanding defensive player giving the Rays the best : outfield defense in the major leagues potentially. Just 24-years of age : heading in 2009, Joyce has a couple of years of consolidation before he : enters his prime sesaons. By all accounts this was an incredible move on the : part of GM Andrew Friedman. 光芒不認為Gross會是RF的答案所以交易來Joyce 希望Joyce可以帶來左打的power 因為Comerica Park容易吃掉power 所以預計Joyce可以在Trop打出30HR的實力他才24歲 : DH-Pat Burrell: 250/367/507; 33HR, 33-2B, 86RBI, 5.3AB:BB, 0SB, 125OPS+ : Burrell's last 4 years of OPS+ have been 128, 122, 127 & 125. That's : consistency so you know what you are going to get from Burrell if you are a : Rays fan. Essentially the Rays are going to get 30HR, 100RBI, and an OPS+ of : 125. That makes Burrell the best DH the Rays have had in their history and : he's only been the DH for about 5-minutes. It actually works for Burrell too : because he may be the worst LF in baseball defensively. In a reversal of "If : You Can't Beat Them, Join Them", Burrell actually beat Tampa in the 2008 : World Series and now finds himself playing for them. I'm a huge fan of : exploiting the DH position because it's a market inefficiency that only : relies on a player's ability to hit without having to take his defense into : consideration. The Rays are doing just that with Burrell. Having him, Pena, : Longoria, Upton & Joyce in the lineup give Tampa 5 players with the potential : to hit 30HR each. The Rays ranked 4th last season in HR hit but with this : kind of arsenal, they may get even better! Burrell最近四年的OPS+是128, 122, 127和125 Burrell太適合打DH了因為它幾乎是防守上最爛的LF "如果不能打敗他就加入他"正是光芒09年的寫照←簽下Burrell 加上Burrell TB將有五個球員有機會打30HR(Pena Longoria Upton Joyce) 以下之後再翻好累= = -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.150.150