Re: [觀點] 一些有趣的數據

看板Spurs (聖安東尼奧馬刺)作者iIvan (go O out)時間14年前 (2012/04/06 23:46)推噓2(2推 0噓 11→)

留言13則, 3人參與討論串3/4 (看更多)

: 老實說這樣本數真的有點小， : 其實所有刻意強調「關鍵時刻」的數據往往都有這個問題。XD : 靠印象的話，本季的live文裡一再出現在關鍵時刻為何要放上防守黑洞的聲音， : 所以或許「場上組合說」成立的機會比「運氣說」還來得小一點。樣本數小沒錯阿，所以我支持運氣說XD 除了人工慢慢統計外，我找不到整理好的不同時段場上組合可以看，所以場上組合說目前也只能靠印象。如果有完整一點的數據（例如可以跨季比較）可以參考的話，關鍵時刻發功說會比較有說服力。 : ElGee最近連續寫了好幾篇很有趣的文章在講這個問題。 : http://www.backpicks.com/2012/03/05/sloan-thoughts-revisiting-late-game-bias/ : Sloan Thoughts: Revisiting Late-Game Bias : 接下來連續三篇分析「The Crunch Time Myth」 : http://www.backpicks.com/2012/03/17/the-crunch-time-myth-why-you-dont-need-a-closer-to-win/ : http://www.backpicks.com/2012/03/20/the-crunch-time-myth-why-closers-and-clutch-shooting-are-overrated-part-ii/ : http://www.backpicks.com/2012/03/23/the-crunch-time-myth-part-iii-overrating-closers-and-clutch-offense/ : 文章很長而且非常數據取向，我也還沒看完， : 不過應該從標題就可以猜到他的結論了。 : 這邊貼一下他最後的總結： : To recap the last three posts: : On a league-wide level: : ●Isolation basketball is the most inefficient offensive strategy : ●Teams rack up fewer assists in crunch time : ●Teams shoot poorer in the clutch (Probably, in some part at least, because of : the first two bullet points.) : Championship Teams: : ●Can win without a closer : ●Can win without shooting well in crunch time : ●Can win without improving their shooting in crunch time : On the relationship between clutch shooting and team success: : ●There is no correlation (-0.04) between how large of a share of the clutch : field goals one player makes and overall team eFG% in the clutch. : ●There is only a small correlation between outperforming expected wins and : clutch shooting (0.21) : ●The correlation between non-clutch eFG% and wins (0.56) is much larger than : clutch eFG% and wins (-0.32) : ●There is almost no correlation between ast% and clutch shooting (0.15) : ●Even the best teams only win about two extra games per year by outperforming : their predicted records based on points : ●The best clutch shooting teams are still upset in the playoffs – some miss : the playoffs altogether : ●Only one elite clutch shooting team has won a championship in the last 11 : years (2011 Dallas Mavericks) : The conclusion: While it always helps to have great offensive players, and : those who play well down the stretch, it is by no means necessary to win in : basketball. Rarely, offensive players can increase their performance so much : they spark a crunch time increase in team offense. (LeBron in Cleveland, : Chris Paul, and arguably Steve Nash are the only recent players to fit that : bill.) But team offense still matters. Defense is a huge part of the game. : The first 43 minutes decide most of the outcome. 這裡的結論有些的確也是很好想像與理解的，所謂的強隊（冠軍隊），需要與對手拉鋸到靠關鍵時刻的爆發的比賽其實不多，我實力比你強在進入關鍵時刻前就把分數拉開到安全距離了，只要保持既有節奏打就會贏，何必搞什麼關鍵時刻的爆發？ : 另外他也寫了一篇討論到底進攻能不能奪冠的文章， : 看起來他蠻支持老波的觀點XD。 : http://www.backpicks.com/2012/03/12/defense-wins-championships-except-offense-is-more-important/ : Defense Wins Championships…Except Offense Is More Important 這篇作為立論基礎的數據其實是有問題的，他比較一支冠軍隊的優勢是進攻還是防守的依據是： (該隊Off Rtg-聯盟平均Off Rtg)與(該隊Def Rtg-聯盟平均Def Rtg）分別取絕對值後比較若是前者大就當作進攻為其優勢，反之亦然。聯盟平均數這種東西很容易受到極端值的影響，而且就以去年的冠軍小牛來說，兩個數據只差0.3就被歸類為進攻型冠軍隊，但事實上去年的小牛在Off Rtg及Def Rtg的聯盟排名同樣都是第八，很難說是靠進攻還是防守在贏球。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.166.229.21