Peace, Love and Thunderstanding…

看板Thunder (奧克拉荷馬市雷霆)作者poning (Oh Yeah!!!)時間16年前 (2009/12/11 12:55)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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原文連結：http://tinyurl.com/yzhddr9 Peace, Love and Thunderstanding: The Difference Between Winning and Losing Growing up as a baseball player, two things became incredibly clear to me. Superstitions are nothing to mess with, and statistics are the lifeblood of sport. I was that guy who came off the field and grabbed the scorebook to keep myself entertained when it wasn’t my turn to bat. That led to me getting lobbied by a lot by teammates to score their one hopper to the pitcher that was airmailed into the stands as a double. 在成為一個棒球選手的過程之中，我得知兩件之前讓我難以置信的事情。迷信其實跟比賽沒啥關聯，還有統計數字對棒球很重要。當攻守交換，還沒輪到我上場打擊的時候，我會研究記錄簿，維持我對比賽的樂趣。[That led to me getting lobbied by a lot by teammates to score their one hopper to the pitcher that was airmailed into the stands as a double.](本句翻不出來orz) As I have grown older and become more obsessed with basketball, I have learned that basketball players are not very superstitious (how else can you explain the number of players who choose to wear the number thirteen–are they crazy?!?) and statistics are not as valuable to rating contributions on the floor (see Kevin Durant and plus/minus controversy). 當我變大了些，我開始比較喜歡籃球。我知道籃球員並不迷信(誰能解釋籃球員可以大喇喇的穿上13號球衣還不以為意？)而數據並不能完全反映出一個球員在場上的價值(可以參考KD場上的表現與對於他plus/minus的爭論)。 Of course, that last bit of information has not stopped me from trying to find a way to find value in a player’s stat sheet. Today, that led me to comparing how the Thunder’s core players (Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden) perform when the team wins versus how they perform in losses this season. After the jump, I share what I found. 當然，我上面所說的事情並沒有阻止我試圖從球員數據中找出評估球員價值的方法。今天我想來比較雷霆的四個主力球員(Kevin Durant、Jeff Green、Russell Westbrook與 James Harden)贏球時的數據表現和輸球時的數據表現。以下分享我比較的結果。 Kevin Durant Surprisingly, I learned that K.D. has very little control of whether the team wins or loses. His numbers are shockingly consistent regardless of whether the team gets the W or not. On victorious nights, he piles up 29.3 points, and if the team comes out on the wrong end, he only scores 26.7. That difference seems to come from the three point line. He has double the three point percentage in wins (38% to 18%) and nearly one more make per game. One thing I did notice, though, is that the spread of points in wins is uber-consistent–between 25 and 35 points. His three best scoring performances of the season (40 against the Clippers, 37 at Sacramento, and 36 against Boston) have come in games that did not go the Thunder’s way. Also, all three games in which he failed to reach twenty were losses. Kevin Durant 意外的，我得知KD的表現對球隊贏球或輸球的影響沒想像中的大。他的數據不管是贏球還是輸球都差不多。贏球時平均得分29.3分，而輸球時平均得分是26.7分。分數的差距似乎是差在三分線的準度。贏球時三分球命中率38％，輸球時只有18％，等於贏球時比輸球時多進一顆三分。我注意到另一件事，他贏球時的得分總是落在25-35分。他本季得分最高的三場比賽(40分 -對快艇，37分-對國王，36分-對超塞)，球隊都輸球。不過這三場比賽都沒有輸到20分。 Jeff Green As consistent as K.D. has been, Green has been anything but. He certainly plays better in Thunder wins. Keep in mind, it isn’t that he plays differently… His shot attempts, defensive numbers, and fouls are the virtually the same. That means he isn’t be any more or less aggressive when the team is unsuccessful, he is just being more effective when they are successful. In wins he shoots 48% from the field, 36% from three, and makes 82% of his free throws. In losses, those percentages fall to 38%-20%-68%. Considering that his attempts are approximately the same, it is no suprise that his scoring average is six points less in losses. Jeff Green 跟KD表現一貫一樣，Green也做了他所有該做的。他贏球時打得比較好。請記住，並不是說他輸球時的打法跟贏球時不一樣。他的投籃次數、防守數據、犯規數都差不多。這代表不論贏球或輸球，他的積極度都差不多，只是贏球時他場上的效率比較好。贏球時他的投籃命中率有48％，三分球命中率36％，罰球命中率82％。輸球時是38％-20 ％-68％。考慮到他贏/輸球的投球數大致相同，我並不對他輸球時平均得分不到6分感到意外。 Russell Westbrook It is probably time that I embrace the fact that Westbrook has the capability to be a 「true」 point guard. He has proven it this season. When the Thunder win, he averages 8.1 assists and has a sparkling 2.5/1 Assist-to-turnover ratio. In losses, however, he is anything but John Stockton. From the numbers, it appears that he is much more aggressive, in general, when they lose. He has more than twice as many steals in a loss, more blocks, more rebounds and takes more shots (even making them at a higher clip). The one difference? He isn’t passing the ball (5.3 assists), and his turnovers jump from 3.2 to 4.4 making his assist-to-turnover ratio less than half of the figure in wins. Russell Westbrook 現在可能是承認他有著成為一個真正的控球的能力時候了。他在本季已經證明了這件事。當雷霆贏球時，他平均傳出8.1次助攻，助攻/失誤比是2.5/1。然而當輸球時，他就不是像Stockton那樣的控球了。看輸球的比賽數據，他顯得更為積極。他輸球比賽的總抄截數是贏球的兩倍，有更多火鍋、籃板，並且投籃次數更多(甚至在面對更壓迫的防守時[不確定：even making them at a higher clip])。唯一的不同是助攻。他輸球時變得不會傳球了，平均助攻下修為5.3，失誤從3.2次增加到4.4次，助攻/失誤比不到贏球的一半。 James Harden When I started this exercise, I assumed that Harden would be the least crucial to determining the outcome. He is a rookie, isn’t a starter (yet), and he plays, by far the fewest minutes of the four guys expected to be who this team is built around. In the end, though, I am leaning toward saying he may be the most important X-factor. His averages do not tell that story: In wins, he puts up 10.6 points, 2.9 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1 steal, and 0.2 blocks. In losses, he puts up 8.6, 2.1, 2.0, 1.2, and 0.4. So basically, his line is no different. Unfortunately, how he reaches those statistics is entirely different. In losses, Harden takes far more shots and makes far fewer. For instance, he makes just as many three point shots per game, but in losses he does it with four attempts, while in wins he takes about two. In all, he makes 53% of his shots from the floor on a successful night, but only 28% if the Thunder lose. James Harden 當我開始比較他的數據時，我假定Harden會是影響比賽結果的最關鍵。他是個菜鳥，還不是個先發，而他的上場時間在四個被認為是未來球隊基石的球員中是最少的。最後，我傾向於認為他可能真的是影響比賽最重要的X-factor。他的攻守數據不會告訴你上面這些事：贏球→10.6分、2.9助攻、3.5籃板、1抄截、0.2火鍋。輸球→8.6分、2.1助攻、2.0籃板、1.2抄截、0.4火鍋。兩者相差不多。可惜的是，他完成這些數據的方式是不一樣的。輸球時，他投球命中率比贏球時低很多，舉例來說，他贏/輸球的比賽三分球投進數是差不多的，但是輸球時他一場平均要投4個，贏球一場平均只要投2個(就可以達成差不多的三分球投進數)。總而言之，他贏球時命中率高達53％，但輸球時命中率只剩28％。 Anyway, next time you are watching a game, key on how well Green and Harden are shooting and how well Westbrook is running the offense. It will probably tell you all you need to know. 總之，當我們看下一場比賽的時候，仔細看看Green打得多好，Harden投籃準度如何， Russ進攻戰術帶的如何。這應該會讓我們了解所有我們必須知道的。 -- 『也許你想從我身上尋求許多東西。可是我卻一點也沒有感覺自己有什麼被需求。』 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 211.22.7.197 ※ 編輯: poning 來自: 211.22.7.197 (12/11 15:04)