[情報] 2018 Draft 綠帽版
這次是新CBA第一次影響選秀,把舊的系統加了許多條件(詳細https://atmlb.com/2GQIPKL)
補償部分:現在qualifying offer的人根據是否超過50M,是否有revenue-sharing和過
luxury-tax來補償原球隊順位在第一or二or四輪後,預設是第二輪
失去部分:不再失去第一輪,有過luxury-tax的隊失去最高二五順位簽(和int'l bonus
pool),收revenue sharing的隊失去最高第三隻簽,沒過luxury-tax也不收revenue sharing
的隊失去最高第二隻簽(和int'l bonus pool)
這次第一輪前半算位置平均,不過少SS.Depth在第一輪中後段.今年整體健康狀況不錯
去年最後贏了一些球 在的位置9th overall,要接受一些缺點或相對有把握修的好
前五輪來自Florida/Texas較多,今年California相對少一些
綠帽一向是(必須)要走在時代尖端,但是今年前面選大學生傾向太明顯了
今年private workout沒有任何消息 表示目標已經剩沒幾個
值得一提的是在前面選HS righthander變成大家都知道不優的事,在後面抽效果可能還比
較好,而且絕大多數需要養五年以上(http://bit.ly/2LQYSfo)
今年bonus pool是第十的$9,553,200(https://atmlb.com/2J0J9fQ)今年小調升了11-40輪
算在Pool的界線是$125,000
今年代表綠帽的是Rollie Fingers
時間
June 4 7:00 p.m. (ET) 1-2 and Competitive Balance Round B
June 5 1:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 3-10
June 6 12:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 11-40
順位
1st(30) Supp.1st(13) 2nd(25) Supp.2nd(10) 3rd(26) after 4th
#9 #50 #70 #85 #113
去年在Competitive Balance Round A今年就是B
戰績跟PIT BAL相同 比前年 在#9和在#11還差蠻多的..
以下老樣子以#9為主,BA1/4/5=BA1/4/5月排名 KL2/4=KeithLaw2/4月排名 PG12/4/5=
Perfect Game排名 MLB.com12/5=MLB.com12/5月排名
2.Matthew Liberatore LHP HS:Mountain Ridge (Ariz.) Age:18.6
8-1 0.93ERA 60.1IP 28H 25BB/104SO
BA1/4/5=9/2/2 KL2/4=5/3
PG11/4/5=2/2/3 MLB.com12/5=3/4
Polished and projectable lefty.Fastball sat 90-97 mph in the early innings but
can be 88-92 during the middle innings(velocity jump hasn't held up).12-6 curve
with great depth,flashing plus.Changeup also looks like future plus potential.
Still inconsistent 81-84 mph slider. Good command.Clean delivery.Mentality.
Beane親自出動看過,太projectable難以掉下來,尤其是通過#7 #8...機會也許在於前面
的人先選了棒子
https://youtu.be/xoqO5sVIm38
3.Nick Madrigal R/R 2B College:Oregon State Age:21.2
.395/.459/.563,2HR,12BB/5SO,9SB-9ATT
BA1/4/5=7/3/3 KL2/4=18/6
PG11/4/5=16/3/2 MLB.com12/5=11/3
One of the safer player in the draft.60 or 65 hit tool,contact ability(among
Division I leaders in batting and contact rate),advanced hitting approach,long
track record.Runs well(60-70 speed) and is a plus defender at 2B.Arm may be
enough at SS.Little power.Undersized(5-foot-7).Broken wrist,missed about two
months.少見的第一輪前段Top 2B draft prospect.還需要評估移去其他位置價值的問題.
季初受傷完全沒影響他的Mock順位.綠帽對SS的要求比較低,有可能可以回SS.雖然說這種
類型的人也不是完全安全就是(見在綠帽前面被選走的Cory Spangenberg).前面#3-#6八成
會選走
https://youtu.be/VtCnUr5ESZk
4.Brady Singer RHP College:Florida Age:21.8
10-1 2.25ERA 88IP 59H 18BB/92SO
BA1/4/5=1/5/4 KL2/4=22/20
PG11/4/5=11/23/12 MLB.com12/5=1/2
Consistent performer.Arm slot is not ideal(lower three-quarters).91-96mph high
spin rate fastball with plus sink and movement,above average slider but it
could be inconsistent and some scouts concerned about upside/moderate depth
(vertical break axis).Changeup generating good fade though he doesn't use it
very often.Plus arm speed.Significant track record of success in the SEC.Very
good extension(around seven feet by TrackMan).Old for his class(21.8).即使有前
述問題看在他track record太安全的份上很多隊有興趣
https://youtu.be/DcyZSEJI2zM
6.Jonathan India R/R 3B College:Florida Age:21.5
.362/.502/.723,17HR,47BB/47SO,11SB-13ATT
BA1/4/5=69/20/6 KL2/4=NR/10
PG11/4/5=117/18/15 MLB.com12/5=NR/8
Breakout Year in the SEC.New hitting approach and better physical condition.
Above average bat speed and raw power,great plate discipline.Great baseball
instincts.Above-average at 3B.May not have a loud single tool.Split time
between SS and 3B over the summer in the Cape Cod League and for the Gators.
排名一路上衝到綠帽選不到的地方,tool上並不亮眼但手套甚至可以去SS..很快在前面大
概會被挑走
https://youtu.be/Jy-rHTYBzb4
8.Shane McClanahan LHP College:South Florida Age:21.1
5-6 3.41ERA 71IP 46H 44BB/117SO
BA1/4/5=3/4/8 KL2/4=13/9
PG11/4/5=3/7/8 MLB.com12/5=5/14
Rare flamethrowing lefthander.92-100mph fastball with great life.Power 81-86
slider.Changeup flashing plus.Excellent stuff but struggle with control and
command(SO9=14.7,H9=5.8,BB9=5.5).Great arm speed.TJ in 2016.Shorter track
record.Reliever risk.純stuff是無庸置疑..綠帽已經選過一個Health/Command issue的
LHP.若是有方法修好問題更嚴重的McClanahan,則在後面偷到好料的歷史可以重演
https://youtu.be/YujvBQUmzCw
11.Travis Swaggerty L/L OF College:South Alabama Age:20.8
.296/.455/.526,13HR,54BB/38SO,9SB-14ATT
BA1/4/5=15/10/11 KL2/4=3/4
PG11/4/5=14/8/9 MLB.com12/5=14/11
Outfielder with multiple tools:average power,60 run,plus defender in
centerfield,plus arm,patient approach.Young(20.8).Question about the hit tool:
contact issues even against lower-tier velocity,swing-and-miss tendencies,over-
aggressive at times.Limited history of wood bat.不是從比較競爭的Conference(Sun
Belt)令人相當擔心,讓人想起在弱Conference差不多一樣地方選到的Michael Choice.棒子
部分能不能Hit是大重點,也許年紀可以彌補這部分?Fangraph的人認為大部分的人在不對
的時機跑去看他..目前我手上的資料還是難以評估他的Hit
https://youtu.be/9_Kl2DX___M
15.Nolan Gorman L/R 3B HS:O'Connor (Ariz.) HS Age:18.1
.421/.641/.894,10HR,46BB/16SO,4SB-9ATT
BA1/4/5=6/14/15 KL2/4=4/15
PG11/4/5=13/11/14 MLB.com12/5=4/12
Best raw power(70) in the 2018 class,winning multiple home run derbies.Plus
arm strength.Flashed plus glovework at 3B.Actions at 3B have regressed and
ability to hit breaking balls backed up this spring,raised questions about
contact.塊頭變大似乎影響了在三壘的動作,讓人懷疑是否得移去1B.在NHSI和U-18
Baseball World Cup都SO過多令人擔心contact的問題.本來是沒有要寫但是一直有乳摸傳
出,跟Swaggerty一樣最大問題是對他hit tool的看法
https://youtu.be/_2qk0vq7IEA
17.Jackson Kowar RHP College:Florida Age:21.7
9-4 3.21ERA 92.2IP 82H 37BB/91SO
BA1/4/5=8/15/17 KL2/4=11/17
PG11/4/5=6/21/23 MLB.com12/5=10/15
Hasn't had the consistency than teammate Singer but tick higher upside and
louder stuff.Fastball 93-97mph with solid life.Low-80s plus changeup with
deception.73-78mph average Curveball.Great arm speed.But inconsistent between
start-to-start or inning-to-inning.Surgery to repair a collapsed lung before.
另一隻Gator但過去有健康問題和command/control疑慮,比起其他College pitcher是
高風險的類型..可以當作備案
https://youtu.be/_EssmqlRuyA
21.Ryan Rolison LHP College:Mississippi Age:20.9
9-4 3.79ERA 90IP 84H 42BB/107SO
BA1/4/5=11/13/21 KL2/4=10/19
PG11/4/5=7/10/13 MLB.com12/5=9/17
Draft-eligible sophomore.91-96mph fastball.77-81mph hammer curveball with power
and depth.Change-up needs more polish.Struggled with fastball command and
strike-throwing consistency when his mechanics are not quite in gear this
season,inconsistent from game to game. Delivery,now throws way across his body.
個人有興趣..小調mechanic綠帽很有經驗,若可以選這隻調整出來就可以有大報酬..不過
在情勢有些變化的情形下應該是不用考慮到這隻
https://youtu.be/O0ZeF_4Llhc
Other notable guys:
1.Casey Mize RHP Outstanding command(SO/BB=14).Double-plus splitter
Plus slider.Right forearm issue last year.Had trouble staying healthy in HS
5.Joey Bart C R/R Plus raw power,plus arm,above average defender,39%CS
Overall package很像Sean Murphy.好Catcher不嫌多,前面很多隊有興趣
7.Alec Bohm 3B R/R Combination of hit and power.Improved plate
discipline.Cape Cod League MVP.Defensive position unknown.Older(21.8).其他隊似
乎不太在意他手套的未知,會在綠帽前被選走就不用操心這個了..
9.Carter Stewart RHP Velocity jumped this spring.3000-3300 rpm spin
rates curve,new amateur TrackMan record.Two potential 70-grade pitches.
如前述HS RHP大家都不太選了,如果前面有人有興趣的話可以幫到綠帽一把
12.Jarred Kelenic OF L/L Toolsy prep outfielder with track record.
Advanced approach,good bat speed,projected plus power,plus arm.Older(18.9).
Cold-weather bat.據說綠帽"like"他-應該就只是like而已
18.Ethan Hankins RHP 1-1 candidate entered the year.Shoulder injury
in mid-February.70 or 80 fastball,electric life,curve and changeup flashed plus
Pitched well in recent weeks but no life as last year.Young(18.0).雖然回到
投手丘但排名始終沒有回去..可能有人會做cut deal或supplement round撒錢
27.Trevor Larnach OF L/R Improved power.Above-average arm.Big and
from top program.看到有少量乳摸,應該是不會用到
現在的氛圍是DET選Mize,否則是找到了cut deal選其他省錢去後面用或Medical很難看
SF通常來講還是College,聽過很多Cole Winn below slot $
3-6可能都是大學生你丟我撿.今年有前六都是大學生的可能.最好是有出意料的pick
SD大概BPA,剛花錢買pick所以below slot可能.Gore pick顯示他們可在綠帽前抽相同人選
ATL 一些高中生,Gorman
Carter Stewart和Ethan Hankins是兩張有機會在Top10的Wild card.升得很快的Cole Winn
等搶下前面位子更好
對綠帽最不利的就是前面連續被挑走預估的大學生和綠帽口袋人選,能夠破除的方法也只
有:前面有人做cut off deal或意外選了其他人,尤其是#8
Mock
BA:0403/0427/0511/0518/0601 :Travis Swaggerty/Brady Singer/Shane McClanahan/
Shane McClanahan/Jarred Kelenic
MLB.com:1205/0430/0511/0517/0526/0531:Madrigal,Gorman/Swaggerty/Swaggerty
Swaggerty/Swaggerty/Swaggerty
PG:0420/0510/0524 :Alec Bohm/Travis Swaggerty/Travis Swaggerty
Keith Law:0503/0517/0531:Travis Swaggerty/Travis Swaggerty/Travis Swaggerty
Scout.com:1002/0130/0305/0328/0510/0525/0531:De Sedas/Jackson Kowar/De Sedas
Carter Stewart,Ryan Rolison/Swaggerty/Swaggerty/Trevor Larnach
Fangraph:0419/0515/0601 :Joey Bart/Shane McClanahan/Travis Swaggerty
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Athletics/M.1527951825.A.191.html
推
06/04 10:30,
5年前
, 1F
06/04 10:30, 1F
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06/04 12:09,
5年前
, 2F
06/04 12:09, 2F
→
06/04 12:09,
5年前
, 3F
06/04 12:09, 3F
→
06/04 12:12,
5年前
, 4F
06/04 12:12, 4F
→
06/04 12:19,
5年前
, 5F
06/04 12:19, 5F
推
06/04 19:26,
5年前
, 6F
06/04 19:26, 6F
→
06/04 19:27,
5年前
, 7F
06/04 19:27, 7F
→
06/04 19:27,
5年前
, 8F
06/04 19:27, 8F
※ 編輯: ThomasHSNU (59.120.12.253), 06/02/2019 00:34:57
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