[新聞] Teixeira 和 Pujols的比較
看板NY-Yankees作者kelvin0430 (千里之外的影子)時間17年前 (2008/12/25 23:45)推噓79(79推 0噓 38→)留言117則, 57人參與討論串1/7 (看更多)
http://tinyurl.com/8lfwaa
這是一份拿我們給Teixeira的約做基準，在比較一下Teixeira跟Pujols的相關數據，
然後，預估Pujols應該價值多少？(30M/yr?)
原文實在太長太長了，有興趣者就自己看看吧> <
文章最後提到，如果紅雀要跟Pujols談新約的話，Teixeira 甚或 Alex Rodriguez都不是
他們該去比較的...
他們真正應該思考的是---漢克阿倫(Hank Aaron)放在今天應該價值多少錢？
看完全文後，我只有一個感想...Pujols應該住的離地球很遙遠XD
Pujols' Pending Payday: Teixeira Sets the Mark
By Derrick Goold
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
TOWER GROVE — Five years ago the St. Louis Cardinals and the finest hitter
of his generation were steaming toward what could have been a dicey and
milestone arbitration hearing when, in the 11th hour, Albert Pujols agreed to
the largest contract in franchise history. The deal, still active today, made
Pujols the ninth $100-million man in baseball history and, at 24, the
youngest ever to reach the salary threshold.
As the MVP enters the penultimate year of his guaranteed contract, one thing
is clear.
He's been a bargain.
News of the New York Yankees inking first baseman Mark Teixeira to an
eight-year, $180-million deal rippled through baseball yesterday, and there
were probably two interested parties who had little direct interest in where
Teixeira signed. The Cardinals and Pujols' reps cared about what Teixeira
signed for. The switch-hitting, Gold Glove-caliber Teixeira finalized a deal
with the spree-spending Yankees that averages $22.5 million a year, according
to reports. More than Jason Giambi's contract a few years ago with these same
Yankees, Teixeira is a clear and tangible benchmark to help set the market
for … well, what Pujols could command as a free agent. Does Teixeira's new
deal hint at Pujols' next deal?
Both will be 29 during this coming season. Both hit in the middle of the
order. Both play first.
Beyond that …
Pujols won his second National League MVP this winter. Teixeira has finished
only as high as seventh in the voting, and that was back in 2005. Teixeira,
while a switch hitter, is a .290 career hitter with a .541 career slugging
percentage. Pujols is a career .334 hitter with a .624 slugging percentage.
Some statistical shakedowns:
CAREER … BA/ OBP/ SLG … 162-gm AVG (ba/obp/slg, hr, rbi)
Teixeira … .290/.378/.541 … .290/.378/.541, 36, 121
Pujols … .334/.425/.624 … .334/.425/.624, 42, 128
3-YEAR … BA/ OBP /SLG … HR … RBI
Teixeira … .298/.393/,541 … 96 … 336
Pujols … .338/.440/.629 … 118 … 356
One number that deserves its popularity because of its authority and its
ability to compare players against each other and the era in which they play
is OPS+. It basically is on-base-percentage plus slugging percentage compared
against the league average. It's a number set at 100 — so <100 is below
average and >100 is above average. Teixeira's career OPS is a sturdy 134.
Pujols' is 170.
Using additional advanced-placement metrics that we have at our fingertips
these days, Pujols pulls even further ahead. Value Over Replacement Player
(VORP) is simply the number of runs one player contributes to the team over
what a replacement at the same position would do with the same number of
plate appearances. This past season Pujols led the majors with a 98.6 VORP,
according to Baseball Prospectus. It is the second time in three seasons that
Pujols has been No. 1.
Teixeira hasn't cracked the top 50 in that same span.
VORP (according to Baseball Prospectus)
2008 — Teixeira: 35.2 (53rd), right around Troy Glaus, Evan Longoria and
two other high-priced ballplayers, Derek Jeter
and Magglio Ordonez.
Pujols: 98.6 (1st).
2007 — Teixeira: 27.1 (91st). … Pujols: 72.1 (9th).
2006 — Teixeira: 37.4 (54th), sandwiched between Edgar Renteria and
Scott Rolen, and we all know what was
going on then with him.
Pujols: 85.4 (1st).
Pujols, it should be noted, does not switch-hit like Teixeira. Of course, he
doesn't need to.
But what about defense? The measures of defense are constantly evolving and
improving. One of the best out there right now is the plus/minus used by The
Fielding Bible. This is the same publication that has awarded Pujols its
equivalent of the Gold Glove every year that is has given out the award.
Pujols won this year despite not leading his position in plus/minus for the
first time in three seasons. Who did? Teixeira. It only takes a few games of
watching Teixeira to know that he's an above-average defensive player.
Athletic. Agile. Etc. The numbers don't necessarily support the eyes, but
it's safe to say Pujols and Teixeira are, ahem, in the same ballpark when it
comes to playing first base.
Their plus/minus scores for the past three seasons (rank at the position in
parentheses).
PLAYER, POS … 2006 … 2007 … 2008
Teixeira, 1B … +2 (15) … -4 (22) … +24 (1)
Pujols, 1B … +25 (1) … +37 (1) … +20 (2)
All of that is prelude to the original question: What does Teixeira's new
deal tell us about Pujols' next deal?
It's a mind-boggling to consider. Is Pujols twice the player, twice the
salary? Is Pujols 1 1/2-times the player? Pujols is signed on a guaranteed
deal through 2010, and there is a $16-million option for the 2011 season.
According to the USA Today salary database (see blogroll), Pujols' salary
didn't crack the top 25 this past season, but at $16 million for 2009 he'll
likely be in the top 10. Teixeira, at about $20 million in 2009, could be in
the top five.
The Cardinals, led then by Walt Jocketty, scored a coup by buying Pujols out
of his arbitration years entirely, and they do have rights to him until just
a few months before he turns 32. That could reduce the years Pujols will
command — especially compared to 29-year-old Teixeira — but not the salary.
I've found a few places that have attempted to answer the question what
Pujols would make as a free agent in today's markets. Some present it merely
as an academic discussion and don't arrive at any answer. Others break into
mathematical gymnastics far beyond this blog's ability to translate. At The
Baseball Economists' blog, J.C. Bradbury frames his MVP argument in 2007
around revenue generated by a players' performance. Pujols ranks well. At
Fangraphs there was an announcement today that they are translating some of
their sharpest stats into dollar figures and will have leaderboards up
shortly. Over at The Book, a blog spawned from a book about The Book, the
author wrestled with the Pujols Question, and came to some outrageous
conclusions: $300 million. As his guide he used a fascinating scale based on
Wins Above Replacement (WAR), similar to the above Value.
The author's chart is available here, and it illustrates how a player with a
7.0 wins above a replacement player is deserving of a 10-year, $305.9 million
contract. (Yowza.)
Using those aforementioned Fangraph numbers, Pujols' WAR in 2008 was … 9.0.
Clearly, there is no way to calculate Pujols' worth using other players'
salaries. He defies the market. Teixeira's new contract only underscores what
was already apparent: Pujols is due a raise. A hefty one. If five years ago,
he was the youngest $100-million man, then two years from now is he the first
$30-million year man? The way his contract with the Cardinals is structured
they will be paying him deferred salary long after he retires, until 2029.
Might as well minimize the paperwork and keep the paychecks coming from the
same source.
To determine the value of that paycheck, however, you can't rely on
comparables. Or, maybe not current comparables. Baseball-Reference.com has a
unique feature that compares a player at his current age against all players
at the same age. For a majority of his career, Pujols has compared favorably
to Joe DiMaggio. There was a break this season. Here are Teixeira's and
Pujols' comparables, via Baseball-Reference.com's formula:
Teixeira
1. Carlos Delgado
2. Kent Hrbek
3. Fred McGriff
Pujols
1. Jimmie Foxx
2. Hank Aaron
3. Frank Robinson
Maybe that's the key to understanding how the Cardinals can approach Pujols'
new contract. It's Teixeira or even Alex Rodriguez that they should consider.
Neither compares. The question is: What would Hank Aaron make today?
--
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