Re: [外電] Profile:Erik Bedard

看板Orioles作者odyy ( )時間18年前 (2007/08/25 22:27)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

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原諒我的懶惰，以下我要用意譯法了，希望大家看得懂。有任何錯誤也請指正！ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Majors Bedard won the 5th spot in the Orioles 2004 rotation out of spring training, but actually started the year in AAA, as the Orioles didn't need their 5th starter until April 10. I doubt the Orioles really knew what to expect from Bedard- his had barely pitched since June 2002, and that was at AA. The results were mixed, as Bedard went 6-10 with a 4.59 ERA (not bad for a 5th starter, really). As one would expect, his peripherals moved in the wrong direction. The most disturbing of these trends was his walk rate, which was all the way up to 4.7 BB/9. His strikeout rate, although not what it once was, was very solid considering the level of competition, at 7.9 SO/9. Bedard在2004年贏得了金鶯隊第五號先發的位置，但實際上該年他是在3A投球，直到4月才上到大聯盟。手術後的Bedard並沒有投過太多場球，而他在大聯盟第一年的表現也不盡理想，雖然他的三振能力還在，但保送也增加了。 Bedard got off to a tremendous start in 2005, going 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA in his first 9 starts. He was clearly a different pitcher than in '04, as he cut his walk rate in half (to 2.08 BB/9), and also decreased his HR/9 (0.85 to 0.45), while his K rate held steady. But, as seemed to be the trend at this point, his season was cut short, as he went on the DL with a strained MCL on May 26. Bedard在05年有個強勢的開始，前9場先發拿下5-1，ERA 2.08。他的表現和04年相較有著明顯的不同，他的保送、被全壘打率都下降了，而三振能力仍然保持著。不幸地，Bedard在5月底進入了DL名單中。 This injury was a huge step back for Bedard. After missing almost two months, he came back and was not the same pitcher he had been. He went 1-6 the rest of the year, with a 5.40 ERA. His walk rate went right back up to 4.67 BB/9, and his hit rate increased, as did his HR rate. After posting a 3.7 K/BB ratio before the injury, it was down to 1.7 afterwards. 兩個月後，Bedard回來了，但一切都不一樣了，他好像不再是季初那個大殺四方的Bedard了，他的所有相關數據都上升了，以1勝6敗的成績結束了他剩下的球季。 In 2006, everything finally came together for Bedard. First and foremost, he managed to go the whole year without going on the DL. In 196.1 innings (55 above his previous high), he went 15-11 with a 3.76 ERA. His performance was right inbetween his two halves of '05. He got his control back, lowering his walk rate to 3.2 BB/9. An important aspect of his '06 performance was significantly increasing his ground ball rate, from 40% in '05 to 49% last year. 到06年，一切終於回到了軌道上。最重要的就是Bedard在整個球季中都保持健康。他的控球也回來了，保送率降低了。另一個重要的進步是他滾地球的比率從 05年的40%提升到了49%。這年Bedard有15勝11敗、3.76ERA的成績。 This year, Bedard has made the jump from being the best pitcher on the Orioles to become one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He actually got off to a slow start, with a 6.09 ERA in April, but has gone 9-2 with a 2.20 ERA since. There are two main reasons for this improvement- one being completely his doing, the other having very little to do with him. 今年，Bedard不但一舉躍升為金鶯隊最好的先發投手、也成為全聯盟中最好的投手之一。雖然有點慢熱，但已漸入佳境。這個進步的主要原因有兩個：一個是他從前就擁有的特質、另一個則和他本身的關係不大。 The first reason, obviously, is the fact that he decided to start striking everybody out. From FanGraphs, here is his K/9 for each year of his ML career: 第一點很明顯，就是他開始決定K掉所有打者，下面是他大聯盟逐年生涯的K/9比 (參見http://kuso.cc/2lvr)。 Well, then. The way he made the jump this year from 7.8 K/9 to 11.0 is actually very interesting. He has actually gotten to two strikes on less hitters this year (44%) than last year (55%). But once he gets there, he's been filthy. This year, once Bedard has two strikes on a hitter, he gets the K 53% of the time- last year that number was 37%. Bedard的K/9比從7.8升到11.0是個有趣的現象。他今年對打者拿到 2 好球的比率比去年低(從55%降到44%)，但是一但他拿到了 2 好球，有 53% 的打者會被三振，而去年只有 37% 。(此段經板友merquise指正，非常感謝) As I mentioned before, part of Bedard's improvement can be attributed to a factor beyond his control, that being the Orioles' defense. In '04, '05, and '06, the Orioles ranked 18th, 17th, and 26th, respectively, in the majors in Defensive Efficiency. Because of this, Bedard had above average BABiPs (Batting Average on Balls in Play) all three years. Here is a graph of his yearly BABiPs. 如同我之前提到的，這一部分的進步可以部分歸因於金鶯隊的防守。在04到06 年金鶯隊的防守效率分別排名第18、第17和第26名。正因如此，Bedrad在這三年擁有高於聯盟平均的BABIP，請參見下圖http://kuso.cc/2lvr。 ◎註：關於BABIP的定義，請參考http://kuso.cc/2lwq。 This year the Orioles rank 8th in baseball in Defensive Efficiency. This has allowed Bedard's BABiP to go from .320 last year to just .292 in 2007. 而今年金鶯隊的防守效率排名第8，這也讓Bedard的BABIP從去年的.320降到.292。 Bedard's BAA (Batting Average Against) has gone from .261 last year to .214 this year, a drop of .047. About 60% of that is due to the increased strikeouts, while the other 40% is due to the Orioles' improved defense. Bedard的BAA也從去年的.261降到.214，其中有六成的降幅是因為三振的增加，其餘四成則是金鶯隊在防守上的改善。 According to Jeff from Cot's Baseball Contracts, Bedard will have accumulated 5 years and 171 days of service time after next season, leaving him just one day short of qualifying for free agency. So, unless he signs an extension, Bedard will be a free agent after the 2009 season. Although he'll turn 31 in March, 2010, and the club that signs him will probably be paying for his decline, Bedard should do quite well for himself if he decides to become a free agent in a couple years. ~ 討論到Bedard為來即將成為FA，從略 ~ Information for this article taken from Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus, The Baseball Cube, Baseball America, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Wikipedia, and FanGraphs. Pictures taken from here, here, here, and Mr. Irrelevant; all graphs taken from FanGraphs. ~ 數據來源 ~ -- The Future Is Unwritten. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.230.2.225