[外電] Grading The Deal: Wolves Add Beasley, Ridnour

看板Timberwolves (明尼蘇達灰狼)作者jerod (KG4MVP)時間15年前 (2010/07/22 08:34)推噓8(8推 0噓 3→)

留言11則, 6人參與討論串1/1

http://0rz.tw/2ul8y David Kahn and the Wolves were on the receiving end of the Heat unburdening themselves of Michael Beasley and his $4.962 million contract for the 10-11 season, which created the necessary cap space for Mike Miller. Since Minnesota was not required to send an asset of significance in return for Beasley and used their own cap space to absorb the contract, there is really no potential downside. For better or worse, players picked in the top-five are almost never traded after just two seasons. Teams tend to want to justify the decision by investing minute after minute of floor time to those players, giving them every chance in the world to succeed. Miami would have continued with Beasley as well, but the special circumstances of their summer made him a redundancy. Picking Beasley obviously was a mistake for the Heat, but it was one that would have been made by 29 other teams put in their position. The Heat would be perfectly setup if they had Brook Lopez at center to play with their Big 3, but that is the most idealistic use of hindsight imaginable. While the Raptors were uninterested in Beasley in a sign-and-trade for Chris Bosh, preferring the traded player exception and picks, the Bobcats and were absolutely interested in giving him a new start. The Rockets also might have been interested, but it is difficult to determine his true market since the Heat were only interested in sending him out free and clear. What we do know about his market is that it was absolutely soft regardless of how it is spun; if the Bulls were desperate to clear cap space for the Big 3 and wanted to shed Derrick Rose for example, we do know they would have had many more teams interested and multiple unprotected first rounders would be offered. But Minnesota is undoubtedly receiving a talented player, who won't turn 22 until after the first of the year. In terms of pure basketball ability, I still think he is the best player from the 2008 Draft, but there are several things working against him. 1. He is a classic tweener. 2. He has suffered from depression drug addiction. The former is a bigger concern from Minnesota's perspective than the latter, because Beasley is absolutely not a Chris Washburn case. He is a good kid who has had a very high opinion of himself for years and the past year has sobered him up metaphorically and literally. I remember speaking to Beasley while he was still in high school and he came across as insufferably arrogant, but he backed it up completely at Kansas State. Beasley hasn't completely backed it up while in the NBA, but his first two seasons need to be put into a proper perspective. His rookie PER was 17.2 and it dropped to 16.1 this past season. The reason for the decline was largely predicated on his struggles with his jumper. He is a good pure shooter, but his game is predicated on confidence and that disappeared this past season. Beasley is a high volume shooter and it is difficult for any coach to justify his usage when his eFG% is 46.3%. Depending on how Kurt Rambis plays Beasley, I expect that to immediately look like an outlier and he will become a 52.0% eFG% scorer at the very least. If there is a path Beasley could optimistically look at, it would certainly be Chauncey Billups. The Celtics drafted Billups third overall in 1997, but traded him during his rookie season to the Raptors for Kenny Anderson. He was quickly traded to his hometown Nuggets, who eventually dealt him to the Magic. A big part of why he bounced around was injuries, but clearly multiple teams gave up on the talent he showed in Boulder. In a more nuanced way, I see a lot of similarities between Beasley and Chris Mullin. They are both incredibly pure scorers, lefties and Mullin nearly drank his way out of the NBA during the early part of his career. Beasley is a little bit bigger and a much better rebounder, but I think Beasley's game has the most upside if he plays similar to Mullin stylistically. This would mean he becomes more of a small forward, though he certainly is capable of playing the point forward hybrid we see from Lamar Odom in the Triangle. Despite its simplicity, this easily has the potential of becoming David Kahn's best move as GM. Grade for Wolves: A I think the Triangle is a good system for Beasley eventually, but I worry about how long it will take him to learn it. He would be more likely to make an immediate impact if he had been traded to the Raptors, or the Rockets, but it is a situation that should benefit him in the long run. Grade for Beasley: B Miami accomplished its goal, so trading Beasley for nothing is simply the cost of doing business. But there has to be an uneasiness and a sense of regret in trading away a second overall pick just two years into his career. Even Darko Milicic, Beasley's new teammate, lasted two and a half seasons before the Pistons traded him to the Magic and they at least received a first round pick back in return. Grade for Heat: C+ The Wolves have also added Luke Ridnour, signing him to a four-year, $16 million contract. I've been a mild Kahn apologist, waiting on him to finish cooking the meal before questioning the manner in which he's mixing up the ingredients. But if we are to equate point guards broccoli, how much broccoli is really needed? This signing is baffling for a big grab bag of reasons: 1. Ridnour is 29 and on the back side of his career, while the Wolves are clearly rebuilding with youngsters. 2. Will the Wolves be comfortable going three-deep at point guard when Ricky Rubio comes over, or will Minnesota trade either Johnny Flynn or Ridnour before then? 3. Ridnour is coming off an outlier of a season, posting a PER of 17.7, whereas he was at 13.7, 11.3 and 12.9 in the previous three seasons. The reason for the jump was his eFG% of 52.8%, easily a career high, beating his 46.8% in 06-07. 4. Signing Ridnour makes trading Ramon Sessions even more difficult. 5. Ridnour is more of a pick-and-roll point guard and not what is needed to run the Triangle. Kahn appeared to sign Sessions last summer in a 'why not' move and grabbing Ridnour feels identical. He appears to be completely in asset compilation mode, but the problem with Ridnour is he represents an asset with a fast approaching expiration date. Grade for Wolves: D+ Ridnour's market wasn't as lucrative as he might have been expecting, but at least this deal will let him play out the remaining seasons of his non-veteran's minimum seasons making more than twice as much. My biggest recommendation for Ridnour would be to rent in Minneapolis, because he'll probably be traded well before the 2012 Presidential election. Grade for Ridnour: B -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 163.17.112.136