[情報] 2016 draft 綠帽版
今年的6th overall是近年來最高順位.多虧了去年坦的夠,今年要看的人很少,明年也要
繼續努力!?今年可以多翻一點東西來看.高順位就像Forst講的The strategy is very
different from what we've done.1-1 undetermined,確定的東西不多,第一輪inf很稀
少,first round talent倒是比平常多,對三明治附近多選擇的人有利.其實今年受傷的人
並不多,但是大家都有一些風險
另一個因素是不知道新GM Forst會怎麼選,他應該有一些主導權,可以在最後幾分鐘做決定
Forst主導的話也許會接近市場上排名的best available.而不是舊beane時代的Lewis or
Ray or Senzel or Zack Collins.目前的氛圍是前五比較想拿確定的東西或是有大bonus
pool的人做cut deal選好搞定的大學生,連Braves都這樣的話得要觀察到選秀當天,如果大
家都不要風險我們應該要選天份.今年Bonus pool是第6的9.8M(http://goo.gl/JuF4re).
時間
June 9 7:00 p.m. (ET) 1-2 and Competitive Balance Round B
June 10 1:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 3-10
June 11 12:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 11-40
一樣提早一小時開始Preview show.今年會代表綠帽出席的是ESPN常可以看到的Dallas
Braden(http://goo.gl/RVN8DT)
順位
1st(23+11) Supp.1st(7) 2nd(29) Supp.2nd(7) 3rd(29) after 4th
#6 #37 #47 #83 #107
#37在LAD後面不太優,而且如果少補償一個第一輪尾(e.g. Ian Kennedy or Ian Desmond)
的話LAD會補在我們後面
以下老樣子以#6為主,BA3/5=BA3/5月排名 KL11/4/6=KeithLaw排名 PG12/5=
Perfect Game排名 MLB.com=MLB.com排名
1.A.J. Puk LHP College:Florida
2-3 3.21ERA 70IP 50H 31BB/95SO
BA3/5=6/1 KL11/4/6=4/13/4
PG12/5=2/4 MLB.com=4
Downhill Fastball hitting upper-90s sometimes(late last spring and some games
this season).Plus 88-90 mph sweeping slider and average changeup,great
extension.One of the highest ceilings in the college class.Combination of size
(6-7/230lbs)and raw stuff.Control issue,Inconsistency,health concern(back
spasms)常在各份scouting report上.問題在誰能消除他的Inconsistency
https://youtu.be/S8NdXpopCO0
3.Jason Groome LHP HS:Barnegat (N.J.) HS
1-3 1.13ERA 39.2IP 15H 14BB/90SO(calculated)
BA3/5=6/1 KL11/4/6=4/13/4
PG12/5=2/4 MLB.com=4
6-6 polished high school pitcher.Up to mid-90s fastball,potential plus plus
nasty 75-77 mph late break curveball.Mid to upper-70s changeup.Good control.
Clean mechanics and clean and repeatable arm action.17-year old senior.
Some teams have concerns about his makeup.April suspension related to his
transfer violating transfer regulations.
和Puk一樣是幾個月前1-1的人選.綠帽最近也去現場看了他的start.就最近一些隊不想選他
的氛圍,掉到綠帽順位的機率變高了.如果我們沒選#7MIA大概會馬上挑走
College Commitment: Vanderbilt
https://youtu.be/uClQ3pe_iy8
4.Kyle Lewis R/R OF College:Mercer
.395/.535/.731,20HR,66/48 BB/SO,6SB-11ATT
BA3/5=8/4 KL11/4/6=19/7/8
PG12/5=8/5 MLB.com=3
Lewis vs Ray是這次選秀常見的比較(另一個是18U隊友 Moniak vs Rutherford).
Toolsy college outfielder.easy plus-plus raw power to all parts of the field.
Plus bat speed,improved strike zone judgment.Average running speed .Great arm
strength.May move to RF at the next level but some think he has a chance to
stay in center.Small school player(Mercer,which has never had a 1st round pick)
and in the Southern Conference (which has had just three in 51 Drafts).
High strikeout rate,in a weaker conference是幾乎每份報告都會寫到的東西,
但支持者還是可以拿Cape Cod wooden bat League的表現(.300 7HR)來消除一些疑慮.就目
前的氛圍掉下來的機率不高
https://youtu.be/zDHjMtL91tU
5.Mickey Moniak L/R OF HS:La Costa Canyon HS, Carlsbad, Calif.
.476/.540/.942,7HR,13/6 BB/SO,11SB
BA3/5=15/5 KL11/4/6=11/6/5
PG12/5=16/11 MLB.com=5
HS bat who lacks only power among 5-tools.Future 70 hitting grade:hard LD to
all fields,fluid swing and quick wrists.Very good bat speed.very simple and
efficient approach.Good strike-zone discipline.plus speed and average arm.Has
ability to stay in center field long-term ans it's plus.Young(17)for his draft
class.Showing signs of adding a bit more power to his swing
同樣是HS bat,Monick從本來的第一輪中段一路爬到Mock1-1,而Rutherford從原本Mock1-1
掉下來,儘管沒有任何的傷痛因素.據傳綠帽scouted Moniak hard.看起來是很適合綠帽的
型但是選到的機會很低.College Commitment: UCLA
https://youtu.be/XEV39u3rkHU
6.Nick Senzel R/R 3B/SS College:Tennessee
.352/.456/.595,8HR,40/21 BB/SO,25SB-29ATT
BA3/5=2/6 KL11/4/6=NR/10/10
PG12/5=21/7 MLB.com=7
Best college pure hitter in the class.All-fields approach
Younger for his grade(won't turn 21 until 20 days after the draft)
Cape league MVP(.364 4HR 14SB)
Good bat speed.Good strike zone judgment.Average running speed.Plus arm
Improved his defense substantially this spring
Move to SS later in the season.Can also play 2B
綠帽的大乳摸之一.據傳Reds #2很有興趣.會有在後面選到是因為其他隊擔心在3B沒有
power,若能好好利用可以重演在Top10外偷到Addison Russell的戲碼.另外他是Scott
Boras' client
https://youtu.be/hzuw9dhKy7Q
7.Corey Ray L/L OF College:Louisville
.324/.399/.570,15HR,34/37 BB/SO,44SB-52ATT
BA3/5=7/7 KL11/4/6=5/3/1
PG12/5=6/3 MLB.com=6
Rare speed and power combination.Top-of-the-scales athleticism.
Can hit,quick left-handed bat,solid present bat speed
Plus speed,very high success rate
Plus raw power,cutting down whiffs dramatically without losing power
Arm is a tick above-average
很少見defensive position看法非常分歧的人.另打LHP的問題已經沒有人在提.
在#6見到的機率比Kyle Lewis高,問題在於如何評斷他的fielding position
https://youtu.be/8RzZwXttDbs
9.Blake Rutherford L/R OF HS:Chaminade College Prep HS, Calif.
.577/.676/.923,4HR,19/8 BB/SO,17SB
BA3/5=3/9 KL11/4/6=3/4/7
PG12/5=5/6 MLB.com=8
Highly advanced high school hitter with overall offensive potential:easy plus
power which may start translating into game production soon.Above-average
hitter with great extension from his lefthanded swing.Good bat speed
Has a good track record of hitting(three different All-Tournament Team in the
last two years).
Solid arm,above-average speed
Solid defender,may stay at center in the future
Strong makeup.Relatively old(turns 19 already)
長久來的performer因為年紀或in game power沒有進步等排名滑落,但他仍是明顯的
overall package而明顯的市場低估了他
Commitment: UCLA
https://youtu.be/zPDNSWisFQ4
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/26271672/v562937383/?query=Rutherford
16.Zack Collins L/R C/1B College:Miami
.353/.528/.607,12HR,67/48 BB/SO,1SB-4ATT
BA3/5=42/16 KL11/4/6=NR/29/17
PG12/5=42/16 MLB.com=14
Excellect strike-zone discipline(162AB,67BB/48SO)
Plus lefthanded power and advanced approach,which generates power from his
lower half.
The biggest question mark is his future defensive home:improved but mobility
behind the plate is still questioned.
Catch-and-throw skills still fringy.Fringy average arm
綠帽傳不少的rumor之一,應該至少會是個fallback plan
另外cut deal再丟錢在後順位的方式不太可能,至少CHW#10開始有興趣
https://youtu.be/MkJIGwZzS1U
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40395496/v625728383/?query=zack%2Bcollins
Other notable guys:
2.Riley Pint RHP 96-102mph fastball,90-91mph changeup.inconsistent command
8.Delvin Perez SS Best overall package of tools in this class.Youngest top
prospect in the draft;questions about his maturity and some
concerns with his bat.Heavily linked to MIL#5
#1PHI只剩下幾個選擇Puk,Moniak,Lewis等.走Moniak的話#2Reds比較可能選Puk,對我們比
較有利.
最差的case是#1Puk,#2Senzel然後Lewis,Moniak,Ray等在3-5被拿光剩的又沒興趣,這樣真
有可能要用到Zack Collins
Mock
BA: 0330/0506/0513/0527 :Corey Ray/Nick Senzel/Nick Senzel/Jason Groome
mlb.com: 1202/0502/0512/0520/0526/0603:Bryan Reynolds.Ray/Moniak.Senzel/Senzel
Groome/Moniak/Groome
PG: 0511/0525 :Kyle Lewis/Nick Senzel
Keith Law: 0518/0529/0604 :Nick Senzel/Nick Senzel/Nick Senzel
scout.com: 0217/0330/0421/0513/0526/0604:Delvin Perez/Lewis.Puk/Puk
Nick Senzel/Nick Senzel/Kyle Lewis
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Athletics/M.1465133966.A.265.html
※ 編輯: ThomasHSNU (59.120.12.253), 06/05/2016 22:28:26
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