[Wang] Figuring out the Yankees and Wang's …

看板NY-Yankees作者richardcyl (more)時間17年前 (2009/04/16 00:17)推噓15(15推 0噓 12→)

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http://tinyurl.com/c8rqzq 作者：Steven Goldman (節錄重點，只翻大意) The pitching has been erratic, but with the exception of Chien-Ming Wang, not so erratic that one would want to panic about the season's safety. Wang, though, is so troubling as to erase reasonable feelings. It seems like the Wang matter can resolve in one of two ways: his problem is either one of injury or one of mechanics. All parties involved seem to be insisting on the latter, and we have no choice but to take their word for it right now. While Wang's velocity does seem to be down a bit, it is certainly possible that this too is a function of his mechanical problems rather than an indication of a problem -- and sinker pitchers do have problems. As I wrote here after Wang's first start, the sinker is an easy pitch for a pitcher to lose his feel for. He can get "under" it, elevating the pitch and turning it into a batting practice fastball. Again, at the risk of repeating myself, this used to happen to Tommy John from time to time, and John had more experience throwing the sinker than any pitcher in history -- 26 seasons in the Majors, plus two more in the Minors. Yet, from time to time, this pitcher, who had seasons in which he induced nearly four groundouts for every fly ball, would start elevating his pitches and get hammered. 王的問題可能來自於兩個原因：一是他有受傷，二是他的投球機制有問題。所有相關的人都指出他的問題來自於後者，ok，那我們也沒有其它的選擇，就姑且認定王的問題就出在他的投球機制。雖然王的球速似乎也比以前慢，不過這同樣很可能是出自於他自身投球機制 (的改變)所引起的。我曾經講過，sinker是一種容易被投手"忘記球感、忘記該如何投"的球路。這種球沒有投出它該有的角度時，球一偏高，就跟打擊練習時所碰到的速球沒有什麼不同。 Tommy John過去也曾經有這樣的問題。TJ是歷史上使用sinker最多的人，在他整整26個大聯盟球季+2個小聯盟球季中，他使用sinker的數字高於歷史上的任何一位投手。他的生涯滾飛比接近4:1，但是當他的球路一高起來，就會遭到重擊。 When a pitcher has mechanical problems, particularly a good pitcher like Wang, they typically figure them out with time. There are exceptions, the odd psychological cases grouped under the heading of "Steve Blass disease," plus a few others, most notably the Jays' great Roy Halladay, who needed an extended sojourn in the Minor Leagues in 2000 and 2001 to rediscover his mechanics after disintegrating completely in the Majors at the age of 23. Wang is a veteran, 29 years old, not 23, and seems unlikely to suffer this fate. Of course, we won't know if he can find his mechanics until he finds them, but again, a sinker guy forgetting how to sink the ball is not unheard of. 當一個投手的投球動作出現問題，就以王這樣的好投手為例，他們都得花時間去理解問題出在哪裡。最有名的例子是藍鳥隊的Roy Halladay，在2000年和2001年，當他在大聯盟被打得灰頭土臉，使得他需要延長待在小聯盟的時間一再練習、找出最正確的投球動作，當時的他是23歲。然而王建民本身已經是個有經驗的老手，他29歲，不是23歲，照道理來講，這種事不該會在他身上發生。當然，在他發現他的解決之道前，我們不會知道他是否能找回他的投球機制。但仍要再重覆說明一次，一個伸卡球投手忘了該如何投sinker並不是沒有前例的。 There is a broader argument to be made that a pitcher like Wang, with his low strikeout rates, dependence on his defense, and less than pristine injury history, is not likely to be a 10- or 12-year pitcher in the Major Leagues. There are simply too many things that have to go right for him to pitch effectively, and if any aspect of his peak powers are compromised, he will have little to fall back on. A pitcher of this nature can simply have a bad year on balls in play, or allow his line drive rate to tick up slightly, and he's suddenly naked on the mound. Those looking for evidence of such a decline could point to Wang's ratio of ground outs to air outs, which has steadily declined throughout his Major League career, beginning at 2.87 in 2005, an excellent rate, and landing at 1.65 last season, still above average, but no longer in the dominant zone. Again, this kind of dire analysis is a reach right now. Wang has made two bad starts, two very bad starts. Two starts hardly constitute a trend. 這邊有另一個較為廣泛的爭論，那就是像王建民這樣一位低三振率、仰賴隊友防守並且pristine injury較少的投手，(通常)不太可能在大聯盟生存10年、12年。這種投手如果想要有好成績，需要有太多的條件配合地剛剛好才行，一旦他自身的頂尖武器退化了，那麼他想要再反彈回來的機會是不大的。這種特質的投手投壞的那一年可能是球被打進場內變安打的比率偏高，或是平飛球比率上升，因而造成他成為投手丘上被狙擊的顯明目標。由王建民的滾飛比來看，或許可以得到些印證。 2005年的王建民，他的滾飛比是2.87:1，非常出色，但到了2008年，下降到1.65:1 ，這仍然是在平均之上，但是已經不再是具有主宰力的程度。當然，這些看起來相當可怕、悲觀的分析都還只是因為這個時間點所生的，王有了兩場很糟糕的先發，但是兩場先發還不能證明這就是最後的趨勢。 The good news is that very few teams go five starters deep in their rotation anyway, and if the Yankees continue to get good work from their other four rotation members, Wang can struggle a bit without hurting the winning effort too much. That's not to say that he can keep pitching the way he did on Monday night -- the bullpen simply won't tolerate it -- but there is a middle ground that may be sustainable for awhile. 好消息是今年的NYY在先發輪值陣容的深度真的非常充足，少有隊伍能比得上。只要其它4個人持續地做好他們自己的工作，王建民此時就算陷入低潮，也不會影響到這個球隊太多。這並不是說王建民一整季可以像星期一這場一樣糟下去， (也就是一出賽就糟到連牛棚都無法負荷、野手客串上場的程度)。只是說，他會因為這個球隊有這樣的陣容，使得他可以在(球隊比較沒戰績壓力) 的情況下得到比較好的喘息機會，有中間地帶可以讓他再撐上一段時間，趕快解決問題。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.168.232.92

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