Re: [Wang] Figuring out the Yankees and Wang's …

看板NY-Yankees作者leddy (耿秋)時間17年前 (2009/04/16 00:52)推噓3(3推 0噓 9→)

留言12則, 5人參與討論串2/7 (看更多)

※ 引述《richardcyl (more)》之銘言： : http://tinyurl.com/c8rqzq : 作者：Steven Goldman : There are simply too many things that have to go right for him to pitch : effectively, and if any aspect of his peak powers are compromised, he will : have little to fall back on. A pitcher of this nature can simply have a bad : year on balls in play, or allow his line drive rate to tick up slightly, and : he's suddenly naked on the mound. Those looking for evidence of such a : decline could point to Wang's ratio of ground outs to air outs, which has : steadily declined throughout his Major League career, beginning at 2.87 in : 2005, an excellent rate, and landing at 1.65 last season, still above : average, but no longer in the dominant zone. Again, this kind of dire : analysis is a reach right now. Wang has made two bad starts, two very bad : starts. Two starts hardly constitute a trend. : 這種特質的投手投壞的那一年可能只是壞球率偏高，或是飛球率上升，因而造成他 : 成為投手丘上被狙擊的顯明目標。由王建民的滾飛比來看，或許可以得到些印證。 : 2005年的王建民，他的滾飛比是2.87:1，非常出色，但到了2008年，下降到1.65:1 : ，這仍然是在平均之上，但是已經不再是具有主宰力的程度。當然，這些看起來相 : 當可怕、悲觀的分析都還只是因為這個時間點所生的，王有了兩場很糟糕的先發， : 但是兩場先發還不能證明這就是最後的趨勢。 1. 這裡有點翻錯了, balls in play是指打進場內的球, a bad year on balls in play 就是有一年打進場內的球變成安打的比率偏高。 2. line drive不是飛球是平飛球, 平飛球比率偏高, 被重擊的機率便變大。這兩個趨勢其實不是今年才有的現象...去年連續六場不勝時, 小王意外的超高的BABIP, 後來兩場比賽回穩, 但便受傷了。平飛球比率則是逐年昇高, 到2008年升高到20%...在守備統計數字上, 平飛球被守備的機率只有25%(滾球則是74%, 飛球則是89%), 換言之有75%的平飛球都會變成安打。加上他的三振率又無法提高, 這幾點讓人對他的未來性質疑... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.131.243.40