[外電] Chien-Ming Wang, Occasional Ace
看板CMWang (王建民 - 大樹哥)作者unidon (uni~uni~uni~daisuki~!!)時間18年前 (2007/09/02 09:57)推噓19(19推 0噓 26→)留言45則, 23人參與討論串1/26 (看更多)
新聞來源：
http://www.observer.com/2007/chien-ming-wang-occasional-ace?page=0%2C1
Wang was victimized by a .366 BABIP in August entering today’s game, and had
a 5.46 ERA for the month as a result. His career BABIP mark of .291 has
yielded a career ERA of 3.83.
The problem is that BABIP is not a repeatable skill. Pitchers as skilled as
Pedro Martinez in his prime have seen BABIP go from .325 in 1999 to .217 in
2000. Pedro, however, took the spinning of the roulette wheel out of his
results often, striking out 313 in 213 innings in 1999, while walking just
37. He was able to minimize the damage luck could deal him.
Contrast that with recent Yankee Aaron Small, whose strikeout rate of 4.25
over two seasons in New York bests Wang’s career mark. Small held batters to
a .277 BABIP in his magical 2005 season, overcoming a strikeout rate of just
4.38 to post a 10-0 record and 3.20 ERA. In 2006, with a strikeout rate of
four per nine (but a BABIP that jumped to .388), Small posted an 8.46 ERA.
This is not to say that Wang’s performance will fluctuate as much as Small’
s did (for one thing, Wang’s walk rate remains steady, while Small’s did
not). But pitchers on the low end of the strikeout spectrum are extremely
vulnerable to the variables of baseball luck.
Wang also may not be so lucky with the home run ball, despite his ground ball
tendencies. He’s allowed seven long balls in his 166 1/3 innings this
season. But Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, whose groundball/fly ball ratio is
slightly better than Wang’s, has given up 17 homers in 150 innings. Even
Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona, whose 3.33 ground balls for each fly ball is
significantly better than Wang’s 2.62, has allowed 14 long balls in 173 2/3
innings.
Home run rate also fluctuates from year to year, regardless of the pitcher.
Brandon Webb, who throws a sinker as his main pitch as well, allowed 21 home
runs in 2005, 10 this year. Bruce Sutter, whose sinking action on his pitches
put him in the Hall of Fame, allowed 10 home runs in 101 1/3 innings in 1978,
then just 3 in 99 innings in 1979. And Sutter struck out well over a better
per inning in both seasons, meaning he had far fewer balls in play that could
leave the park than Wang does.
So the next time Ching-Mien Wang pitches, bring your rabbit’s foot to Yankee
Stadium. Rub Freddy Sez’s four-leaf clover for luck. And if you don’t see
batters swinging and missing much, hope the energetic Yankee hitters can come
to the rescue.
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這篇寫得很不專業
看完了但不太想翻 XD
這篇文章下面有九篇comment
幾乎都是"totally disagree (with this article)"
有興趣的可以連到原文網址看一下
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